Why read two prediction markets?
How much is bought back after a Villa win comes from the probability locked before kick-off. That number cannot rest on one venue, so Polymarket and Predict are both read, hourly, and checked against each other.
Villa win probability
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31? · Read 26 Oct, 21:47, kick-off 31 Oct, 20:00 UK time
Gap 0 points
If those two are more than 2 points apart the price is not locked, and no lock means no buyback — nothing leaves the treasury. A lock also has to pass the rest: enough samples inside the window, spreads tight enough, size deep enough.
The record so far: 2 matches locked, 0 skipped for disagreement. The sample is still small.
In these observations 99.64% of pre-match readings are within 2 points.
The red share is under 0.4%; it is drawn at a minimum width to be visible at all.
One venue goes in-play while the other is still on its pre-match price, and the agreement disappears. That is why the lock is taken two hours before kick-off rather than at it.
These are shares of quote observations, not of matches skipped. A lock is decided from repeated samples inside the lock window and their median; one hourly reading over the line does not mean the match is skipped.
No pre-match reading in the last 24 hours was more than 2 points apart.
| Question | Gap | Polymarket | Predict | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-10-31? | 2 points | 89.5% | 87.5% | 26 Oct, 21:47 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25? | 1 point | 73.5% | 74.5% | 26 Oct, 18:46 |
| Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-10-27? | 1 point | 9.5% | 8.5% | 26 Oct, 21:46 |
| Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-28? | 1 point | 54.5% | 55.5% | 26 Oct, 21:46 |
| Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-31? | 1 point | 34% | 33% | 26 Oct, 21:47 |
| Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-10-31? | 1 point | 41.5% | 42.5% | 26 Oct, 21:47 |
| Will Fleetwood Town FC win on 2026-10-27? | 0.6 points | 3% | 3.5% | 26 Oct, 21:46 |
| Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-10-28? | 0.5 points | 16.5% | 16% | 26 Oct, 21:46 |
Unstarted markets seen in the last 24 hours, newest reading per market.
Quote detail and scope
| Polymarket | Predict | |
|---|---|---|
| Top-of-book spread (median) | 1 point | 1 point |
| Size at best level (median) | $240 | $98 |
Size at the best level says what is resting there, not what a larger order would fill at, and is not enough on its own to say which venue is better.
107,783 paired observations · 1380 football markets · once an hour · Observed 14 Sept — 26 Oct UK time
Scope: an observation counts only when both venues show a two-sided quote no wider than 5 points — the same limit the oracle applies to its own samples. A 27% bid against a 98% ask has a midpoint, but that midpoint is not a price. 30,776 of 138,559 readings were excluded for that reason. The same market is sampled repeatedly, so observations are not matches. These are public quotes — reading them is not an order. Raw samples available on request.