32.5%Villa win probability
- Quote range
- 32%–33%
- Traded on this market
- $1,979
- Liquidity (as the venue reports it)
- $18,143
$VILLAVilla Believers · Independent fan memeVilla win. The rule funds a buyback and burn.
The bigger the upset, the larger the share of the match budget.
Unofficial fan token. A buyback is not a dividend and does not guarantee a higher price.
28 Oct, 19:45 · UK time
No locked probability for this match yet, so there is nothing to estimate.
Probability from Polymarket · checked against Predict
Kicks off Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 UK time
This data is more than 90 minutes old; prices may have moved.
32.5%Villa win probability
32%Villa win probability
The two markets differ by 0.5 percentage points — within the 2 the rule allows.
Reference mid prices from Polymarket, refreshed hourly. Only the locked question above decides a buyback; these do not.
Read from both markets at 22:30 UK time and refreshed hourly. Public quotes only: reading them is not an order and earns nothing. The official price is the one locked about two hours before kickoff.
Spent 5.29 USDG of token creator fees, not prediction-market profits.
Published finance snapshot · 24 Sept, 10:54 · UK timeScores refresh hourly; full time is separate from market settlement.
At the moment each match is priced, the chain says who was holding and how much. That reading is kept. Selling later does not erase it — it already happened.
Next reading: when a match is locked
Belief — how much you held, times how little the market believed. Counted whether the club wins or loses.
Vindication — the part of that the result confirmed. Only a win counts, and the more unexpected the win the more it counts.
The window takes your lowest balance, so buying just before a lock earns nothing. There is no pool, no distribution and no claim on anything: this is a record. Addresses are read from the public chain and are not published here.
Everything already executed, with hashes ↗Robinhood Chain · VILLA / USDG
0xD0FECa97eFdAd95E737a053816FdCe1A0fe18E0eThe match budget is 10% of the treasury at settlement. A win releases 1 minus the locked probability. No valid lock or settlement means no automatic buyback. The project does not trade on prediction markets; it reads their quotes.
Full rules ↗